On January 24, a miracle happened. Namely, one Chinese trader decided to test his luck. The result: minus eight 300-dollar cases and one Dragon Lore in the inventory. CS.MONEY is here to look into the situation and consider the odds of this miracle being repeated.
What happened?
During a match with his friends, a China-based player decided to open some 300-dollar cases. Effortlessly, we’d even say casually, he opened eight Cobblestone cases.
They’ve always been expensive — currently, the price tag amounts to hundreds of dollars. The thing is, the map Cobblestone is no longer played at Majors. The last time it was part of a Major was back in 2016. Time goes on, yet no more Cobblestone cases appear.
Anyway, an attempt to try luck with a case unexpectedly resulted in a genuine jackpot. From the eighth case, the lucky guy got an AWP Dragon Lore. And while the skin wasn’t in perfect quality and the stickers on it aren’t exactly the best, it’s still DRAGON LORE!
Okay, he got lucky, but why does it matter so much?
We suspect Cobblestone won’t be returning to the competitive map set. It won’t make it to a Major anymore. Cobblestone cases will no longer appear in the game. Consequently, the item is already on the brink of “extinction.”
The only ways to get new skins from the Cobblestone collection are by opening cases or by crafting. Given there’ll be no new cases, the resources for crafting and unboxing become more expensive. A real scarcity here!
The chance of an AWP Dragon Lore dropping from the case is about 0.3%. On January 24, the first confirmed AWP Dragon Lore appeared in the game in three years. It may also be the last. Given the iconic status of the skin, this is a true event in the history of the game.
Since we’re not out of cases yet, maybe I’ll get lucky too?
Maybe. We’re not into counting other people’s money, but this same trader previously bought an AK-47 Wild Lotus with 4 Titan Katowice 2014 Holo stickers for about $60,000. Odds are, he opened those Cobblestone cases just for fun, not for profit.
We’ve said it many times before, but we’ll say it again. In the long run, cases will always bring a loss. To understand this, just look at the drop odds of items published by Valve itself.
Moreover, if you’re willing to spend $300 on a case and a negligible chance of getting a legendary skin, maybe you should consider investing the money in trading instead. Be sure to check out our store, where you can find interesting offers and make money on them. All you need is a bit of assiduousness and a little knack for trading.
By the way, don’t forget to like this post and tell us what your favorite AWP skin is in the comments. Despite the iconic status of Dragon Lore, I like AWP Neo-Noir better — what about you?
