After the update that lets players get knives through Trade Up Contracts, this feature became super popular. Today, the CS.MONEY Blog will explain how the Trade Up Contract works in CS2 and whether you can predict or calculate which skin you’ll get in the end.
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How do CS2 trade-up contracts work?
In the game, you can trade skins for more rare ones. In most cases, ten skins of the same rarity give one skin of a higher tier. The only exception is red-tier skins, also called Covert. You only need five Covert skins in a contract to get a knife or gloves.
Main rules of Trade Up Contracts in CS2:
- StatTrak skins can only be combined with other StatTrak skins. The result will also have StatTrak.
- The new skin will belong to one of the same collections as the skins you used.
- The float of the traded skins affects the float of the new skin.
- Souvenir skins cannot be traded.
These are the four basic rules. Next, we’ll talk about the details that come from them.
How does probability work in CS2 trade-up contracts?
Let’s look at rule number 2. The resulting skin will always come from one of the collections of the skins you put into the contract. The chances inside these collections are completely equal. That means:
- Ten skins from different collections give each collection a 10% chance for the new skin.
- Ten skins from the same collection guarantee that collection for the result.
- Inside one collection, all skins have equal chances.
For example, ten R8 Revolver Skull Crusher skins from The Prisma Collection can turn into either an M4A4 The Emperor or Five-SeveN Angry Mob. No other option is possible. The chance for each is 50%. If you mix skins from different collections, your chance to get a certain skin depends on how many skins from each collection you used.
For example, instead of ten R8 Revolvers, you put five R8 Skull Crushers and five MP9 Airlock from the Gamma 2 Collection. As a result, you can get one of four skins with equal chances: M4A4 The Emperor and Five-SeveN Angry Mob from Prisma, or AK-47 Neon Revolution and FAMAS Roll Cage from Gamma 2 Collection.
So the possible result of every contract can be predicted, because you choose which skins go into it.
What does the float of a contract skin depend on?
If you’ve ever got interested in AWP Dragon Lore, you probably know that one of its lowest-float skins has a strange number — 0.00001337420690. It looks like someone spilled internet culture onto the float. But here’s the trick — it wasn’t random. The player OGSwagster69, who crafted this skin, knew how to calculate the float after crafting and picked skins for the contract to get that exact number.
Luckily, the float of a skin from a contract isn’t some secret knowledge. It’s calculated using this formula:
minimum float of the resulting skin + (average float of input skins – minimum float of input skins) / (maximum float of input skins – minimum float of input skins) * (maximum float of resulting skin – minimum float of resulting skin)
Let’s explain with an example. Take five P2000 Amber Fade and five P250 Splash. We’re lucky: all five P2000s have a float of 0.13, and all five P250s have 0.11. So the average float is easy to find: (50.11 + 50.13)/10 = 0.12.
Now we find the float range of the skin we want to get — in our case, it’s AWP BOOM with a float range of 0.06–0.28. Subtract the lower value from the higher: 0.28–0.06 = 0.22. We have all variables: average float, float range, and minimum float of the result. Plug them into the formula:
0.06+(0.12-0.00)/(0.40-0.00)*(0.28-0.06)=0.06+0.12/0.40*0.22=0.06+0.066=0.126
After the contract with these skins, you could get an AWP BOOM with a float of 0.126.
Can you make money with CS2 trade-up contracts?
Most contracts in CS2 won’t be profitable. But there are some that can bring a profit. Unfortunately, we can’t show such examples, as the prices are highly volatile and what was profitable yesterday puts you in the red today.
Also, most collections have several top-tier skins. That means each single contract is basically a gamble: if you get an M4A4 worth +20 dollars, that’s a win. If you get a Glock-18 worth -30, that’s a loss. To reduce the effect of luck, you need to do many contracts.
Five beginner tips on How To Profit From Trade Up Contracts
Tip #1: study prices
Check skin prices and pick the right ones. Most contracts won’t be profitable, but with the right float and smart skin choices, you can find a contract with potential profit.
Tip #2: go for quantity
No Trade Up Contract guarantees a result. That’s logical, otherwise players could just print money. But the more often you repeat a profitable contract, the smaller the risk becomes. On one contract, the result is close to 50/50. But if you do 20, 50, or 100 of them, you’ll most likely end up with profit because the winning contracts cover the losing ones.
Tip #3: patience, lots of patience
One of the key features of contracts is predictable results. To make the right contract, you need to track the float of skins you use. That takes time. Gathering skins with the right float can be slow. So if you decide to focus on contracts, be patient and don’t rush. The cheaper you get the skins, the more profitable your contract will be.
Tip #4: use market opportunities
Skin prices constantly change, but it’s not complete chaos. There are predictable trends. For example, prices on popular skins drop during Steam sales or when a new CS2 Operation launches. Players sell old skins to buy new ones, the market fills up, and prices drop.
Opportunities also appear during CS.MONEY events. We regularly run events where you can buy skins at good prices, which is perfect for trade-ups.
Tip #5: think of different options
Maximizing your chance for the most expensive skin isn’t always the best move. Sometimes it’s smarter to make a cheaper contract where that top skin appears less often.
In the long run, this approach can be more profitable than chasing one skin worth hundreds. When building contracts, test different combinations of skins and find the best balance.
Contracts in CS2 are a great way to use up skins you don’t need anymore. They also fit players who want to earn on skins. Finding good contracts isn’t easy, but it pays off with fairly predictable results.
FAQ
How has the Trade Up Contract system changed?
Now you can trade five Covert skins to get a knife or gloves.
Can you get a knife in a Trade Up?
Yes. After the recent update, Valve added this option.
Can you trade Souvenir skins?
No. Souvenir skins cannot be used in Trade Ups.
Does the float of the traded skins affect the result?
Yes. The lower the float of the input skins, the lower the float of the resulting skin. You can calculate it in advance using the known formula.
