It’s been two and a half weeks of a new year, and the trading community was shaken by an event that happened for the first time since the introduction of skins in Counter-Strike. The first StatTrak AK-47 Case Hardened Factory New with the rarest #661 pattern appeared in the game. CS.MONEY Blog will tell you which skin became the most expensive in CS2, why it was this AK CH ST FN #661, how much it costs and who got it. And also why collectors all over the world are shocked, and whether we finally got the most expensive skin in the game.
AK-47 Case Hardened most of the time are not the most expensive skins in CS2. Sometimes, they’re really affordable! You can check the availability and prices for CH skins with simpler patterns on CS.MONEY: some prices are significantly low and are available to anyone!
What is the most expensive skin in CS2?
We finally got the most rare and expensive CS2 skin ever: StatTrak AK-47 Case Hardened #661 Factory New. In more than ten years of skins in CS:GO and CS2, there has been no single item like this. AK-47 Case Hardened first appeared in the game in August 2013 and immediately became a prestigious skin.
How can you get AK-47 Case Hardened? What are the chances to get pattern #661?
We cannot say with certainty who received the most expensive AK in the world, or whether this skin was crafted, or whether it was dropped from a case. If it was a drop, then the probability of such an outcome is approximately equal to 1 in 21 million. Imagine the odds:
- 1.585% chance of getting AK-47 Case Hardened (two Classified skins in the lineup, with an equal chance of dropping)
- 10% chance that the skin will have a StatTrak module
- 0.1% chance that AK-47 Case Hardened will have pattern #661
- 3% chance that it will be a Factory New skin
The first three figures are official, disclosed by Valve after demands from the Chinese government. The community estimated the probability of skin with a Factory New quality appearing at 3%, comparing the distribution of already found skins. Fortunately, there are databases with over a billion skins recorded (yes, there are so many!).
Together, the chances of getting an AK-47 Case Hardened Factory New StatTrak Patter #661 is 0.000004755%! For comparison, the probability of getting a royal flush in poker is more than 32 times higher! Overall, it’s not surprising that this is the first skin in 10 years. Despite the high number of players, the CS:GO Weapon Case is now a rarity, and there were objectively not many chances of getting the classified skin, given its extremely low probability.
If we talk about trade-ups, it’s not that simple either. Yes, we now know how to calculate the float of a new skin and use all skins with a StatTrak module. We eliminate two factors, but two more remain. The maximum probability of getting an AK-47 Case Hardened is 50% (assuming we invest ten skins from the Arms Deal collection). And the pattern is still determined randomly from 1000 possible combinations. Again, here, it takes a lot of luck or a lot of money, as such a contract is not very profitable on its own. The chance to hit the jackpot can be a maximum of 0.05%, and on average, the contract will result in a loss of at least 70%, according to special trade-up calculators.
The most expensive skin in CS2: how much does it cost?
Currently, there is speculation that this StatTrak AK-47 Case Hardened #661 Factory New is the most expensive skin in Counter-Strike. Famous people and renown traders say that this skin can cost up to one million dollars! Below, we can explain, why exactly this number.
But, at the moment, this cannot be adequately confirmed or denied. The real value of such individual items is determined by the desire and wallets of collectors. Similar to the market for paintings by famous artists, we will only know their value post-factum. If an auction is held for this skin, we can judge from its results.
However, we can provide some facts that help estimate the potential value of this rifle.
- In 2021, a StatTrak AK-47 Case Hardened #661 in Minimal Wear with four holographic stickers Titan Kato’14 was sold for $530,000. Yes, there are no stickers on this skin yet, but the float is much higher, and prices have also changed over two and a half years.
- There were rumours that a few years ago, the owner of the Factory New Karambit Case Hardened Blue Gem rejected an offer of over a million dollars for this knife. Many still consider this knife the most expensive skin in the game for this reason.
- Ohnepixel has already valued this skin in the range of $800,000 to $1,000,000. But this is just an opinion, albeit an expert one.
While we cannot state the exact cost, the trading community is buzzing with this new most expensive skin in CS2 in 2024, and probably there’s already a queue for this one. Most likely, we are facing the most expensive skin in the history of Counter-Strike, and its value is likely to be seven figures. We will keep an eye on this topic, so subscribe to CS.MONEY Blog, where we will share new information.
