On the Counter-Strike: Global Offensive skin market, there are a number of obvious and predictable factors at play that affect prices. For instance, the cost of finishes normally goes down at the release of a new operation, and returns to normal later. However, some events are unpredictable. Today, the CS.MONEY Blog will tell you about one such crucial and nontrivial factor.
Meta & patches
We’re talking about patches and meta. While balance tweaks are rare, they do happen. Counter-Strike: Global Offensive’s development team occasionally revises the meta by changing weapon specifications. That’s a great idea that helps refresh the feel of the game on all levels.
For example, after the M4A1-S buff last September, all maps from the tournament pool became “defense maps.” At times, the shift in win rate by round is nothing short of astounding. Even though it’s the main CT rifle, improving the gun alone raised the side’s win rate by 5–7%! To put it into perspective: Vertigo underwent the same balance shift after it was almost entirely overhauled. Now that’s something!
But besides the competitive aspect of the game, the meta and patches affect the cost of skins as well. Right now, we’ll discuss the extent of this influence using three examples from the game’s history.
The rise and fall of the SG 553
The SG 553 lived in the AK-47’s shadow for a long while. Although the gun’s old version was much cooler than the AK in many situations, it was a niche weapon that only a handful of players used in rare scenarios on a couple of maps. Popularity-wise, it was somewhere around the MAG-7 or even lower.
But in October 2018, Valve dropped the price of the rifle, enabling it to compete with the AK-47. A year later, the meta had changed beyond recognition. The SG 553 became the most popular and coveted gun in the game. Naturally, this had an effect on skin prices. The SG 553 Cyrex, the most popular skin for the weapon, became four times more expensive! The other SG 553 finishes showed similar price dynamics.
In April 2020, the development team nerfed the rifle, pushing it from the top of the meta to the abyss of trash guns. The price collapsed immediately. At the end of March, an SG 553 Cyrex FN cost at least thirty bucks. Within two weeks, the price had gone down by ten dollars. By the end of the year, it had settled at fifteen dollars — and was still gradually decreasing.
With & without silencer
Unlike the SG 553 and AK-47, the M4A4 and M4A1-S don’t just compete with each other. The guns occupy one slot in the buy menu, often rendering the choice between them final. Very few players switch rifles between matches. On the contrary: a player would typically opt for a meta gun, with its counterpart left out in the cold somewhere near the Berettas and the G3SG1.
The reason is simple: these guns are quite different. And, unfortunately, the differences make one of them much more preferable than the other. The M4A4 used to be cooler. But then at the end of September 2021, Valve buffed the M4A1-S, immediately making it the public’s favorite. Not only did this affect the prices of M4A1-S skins — with, say, that of the Hyper Beast going up by almost a third — but it also impacted M4A4 looks.
The M4A4 The Emperor, M4A4 Neo-Noir, M4A4 Asiimov — these and other finishes lost 15–25% of their value in a matter of a week after the M4A1-S buff was released. But there’s one interesting detail in this situation. Because of its rarity, the M4A4 Howl survived this situation without any sizeably losses.
The Desert Eagle saga: three shots
The Desert Eagle pistol boasts a most remarkable fame, having appeared in over 600 movies, games, and TV shows. In Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, it used to have its own trick: the gun could kill with two shots to the body. In theory, that’s faster than almost all other the guns in the game. Impressive.
In the aforementioned M4A1-S buff patch, however, the devs reduced the body shot damage dealt with the Desert Eagle. Since then, the gun only kills with three hits in almost all situations. While this is a sizeable nerf at first glance, practice has shown that the Deagle is still badass.
Of course, this nerf had its impact on the price. Just like in the case of the M4A4, the Desert Eagle skins got bereft of up to a quarter of their value after the nerf patch dropped. Still, further dynamics are even more curious. After finding out that the nerf damage didn’t kill the gun — which is uncommon for Valve’s patches — the community began buying the Eagles again, and the price began to rise. At the beginning of this year, the prices of the Desert Eagle Mecha Industries, the Desert Eagle Code Red, and other skins is as good as those as of September — or exceed the latter.
Patch-related risks
We’re not psychics, and Valve doesn’t publish a schedule of patches, so it’s impossible to predict when the next gun will be buffed or nerfed. However, we could still make some conclusions.
First of all, globally speaking, the meta in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. The development team vehemently guards the pistol-farmbuy-fullbuy with rifles and Kevlar. This is evidenced by many facts, such as the UMP-45 nerf that enabled the gun to lay claim to the niche originally occupied by the Galil AR and FAMAS.
Second, the M4A4 and M4A1-S switch places periodically. We’ve already seen that on multiple occasions, and such rotations will most likely continue in the future. With that said, you should always consider the risk of a steep price change when investing in these guns.
Third, rare items are much less susceptible to price fluctuations. The release of new knives doesn’t reduce the prices of the old ones. The same applies for gloves and rare weapon finishes.
Last but not least, there are a whole bunch of predictable events that affect prices. For example, events from CS.MONEY. Sign up for our social networks to make sure you don’t miss out on the next Black Friday or other awesome opportunity to stock up on fresh skins for your inventory.
