Recently, Valve brought big changes to both souvenirs and tournament stickers. To estimate the impact on the skins market, we asked several experts in the trading community to share their insights. Today, the CS.MONEY Blog starts a series where notable community members express their opinions on new sticker shop as well as changes to souvenir crafts. Our first expert is MikeWater9. You can find them on YouTube.
New Stickers: Winners, Losers, Possibilities
What do you think about the new sticker system? Do you believe this is a one-time experiment, or is it here to stay?
The new sticker is interesting, I think it has some bright spots and some questionable decisions, but ultimately I think it will stay in this state and get optimized slowly over time until we get something that players expect and enjoy
Do you think teams and Valve will make more money from this system comapred to previous capsules? Who benefits more in this situation?
I think that initially players and teams might’ve been surprised by the relatively low volume, as prices stayed relatively inflated, and people were opting for using the steam community market instead of the in game store. Of course, volume will be lower, as you can now just buy your preferred sticker instead of opening 20 capsules in hope of the one you want.
It would hurt Valve in the short term; but ultimately will benefit them in the long run, as prices will stay higher on Steam, and subsequently higher fees on each transaction taking place on the new community market.
As prices have seen a more fair level in the last few days (souvenir redemptions are counted in part of the relative demand system), we are seeing holo prices that are actually cheaper than what it would cost to buy them from the SCM of majors’ past. It took some time to calibrate the system, but it seems fairly decent right now, and this just means as more matches are played in Stage 3 and Playoffs, more souvenirs mean cheaper foils, and holos, and the system will only calibrate quicker if they move forward with this system in future majors.
I imagine Valve makes more here, from both outright purchases and the 15% cuts they receive; the teams I imagine will make less (wholly dependent on souvenir redemptions) but at least now they’re incentivized to place well, and not just show face, which is a nice change.
What is the investment potential of new stickers? Can you name the top 3 most interesting for holding and the top 3 most overhyped?
Investing wise, this seems like one of the better opportunities in terms of major stickers. No capsules mean no incoming supply after the major, which is already a huge step ahead of any previous major. Aesthetics wise, they look fantastic, they scrape well, there’s a lot to like about their future. Even if you buy 4 holos, because they are so expensive, the crafts might command a nice amount of demand right off of the bat, which is something we’ve never really seen to the degree in which it would be here.
Holos will always be great, but it seems like Gold stickers, individually, will be the winners here. They’ve been driven up so much in price because of souvenir redemptions, that if you have a gold sticker and it is NOT on a souvenir, people are going to know you paid quite a bit for that. The same logic applies, teams that no longer exist, players soon to retire, teams that have a small chance at qualifying again:
- Fallen
- TDU
- Gaimin Gladiators.
Souvenirs: epic win for Valve?
How do you like the new souvenirs?
One of the best changes we’ve seen in a while. While it does hurt to see the Souvenir Nitro and SV D-Lore get hurt by this, I think it would be silly of Valve to sacrifice the entire souvenir system, just so these few skins can exist and command as much as they did. I think it was a sacrifice that had to be made, but I understand why those collectors in particulars could be shaken up.
As far as the grand scheme of things, souvenirs and regular guns are now equal, trade up wise, which was a big reason why souvenir skins were simply not wanted whatsoever. Having a SV M4 Knight is a nice skin. Having a regular M4 Knight meant you have a nice skin + a 10% chance at a dragon lore. That changes a lot, so having them be equal allows for value to be stored in these guns, finally.
Souvenirs are now intentional, paid with your hard earned money, as opposed to getting free packages, and buying a bunch of other ones. They now mean something. The BIG vs NRG match would have a ridiculous amount of souvenirs already had their been packages, but know they’ll be actual memories.
No more packages means supply stops after the major is over, much like the new stickers, which will always do well for souvenirs. Also, you can now put souvenir stickers on any weapon, Valve no longer has to make map collections anymore if they don’t want to, which means the creative direction of skins can be fleshed out and expanded upon, without having to follow rigid map aesthetics for the Valve collections, which should be exciting as their in house collections tend to be some of the rarest and highly sought after.
What do you think of this new system?
Considering the insane odds of getting anything good from a souvenir package, and the quality of skins at the bottom that defined most of your unboxings, this is fine. I think anyone who disagrees is averse to change specifically for souvenirs. It was an an objectively bad system widely ignored by players for years.
Do these skins have any potential, or is this just Valve’s idea for regular players to enjoy skins?
I think they will, because they’re actual memories now. A lot of skins may be 1 of 1. Player loaned skins might have a real way to denote that. A lot of cool opportunities. It was obvious Valve was going to change this system, it was completely unoptimized for the current state and player base in 2026.
What will happen to the old Souvenir Packages now?
It seems like they’ll rise in price as every map collection is now effectively discontinued all at once. How much they’ll rise will be hard to tell, as the demand for actually unboxing these collections, especially the ones where rarity goes from grey to red (meaning red is ~1 in 3500) will probably still be low. Overpass 2024 and Train 2025 will probably have record low unboxings, which will be good for their futures as well, and they have better odds so people may actually seek to open those.
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You can find MikeWater9 on YouTube, also check out other opinions on big changes to souvenirs and tournament stickers:
