Every day, Counter-Strike 2 players open more than a million cases. Of course, everyone wants to grab a rare skin or better yet, a knife or gloves. Just imagine, you open this regular yellow crate and inside is a brand new Butterfly Knife Gamma Doppler! But what are the chances of getting a knife from a case in CS2? CS.MONEY Blog explains the probability of dropping a knife out of a case in CS2.
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Skin rarity and chances of getting a knife from a case
Counter-Strike 2 has many types of cases with skins. In addition to regular cases, the game also provides souvenir and gift cases. Moreover, there are sticker capsules, patch bags, and graffiti sets. But today we are considering only rare, in other words Gold, items from ordinary cases: knives or gloves.
Regular cases contain items of five rarity levels, from least rare to most:
- Mil-Spec with a 79.9% drop rate
- Restricted with a 16% drop rate
- Classified with a 3.2% drop rate
- Covert with a 0.64% drop rate
- Rare Special Items with a 0.26% drop rate
This distribution is confirmed by both community measurements and data from Valve published for the Chinese version of the game.
How many cases do you need to open to get a knife in CS2?
What are the chances to get a knife from case opening? 0.26%, which means on average you can pull a knife in one out of 400 cases. Read again: on average. The fact is, there are no hidden mechanics when opening cases, no secret pity timers that increases the chance of getting a knife from the next case with each open case without a knife, no special days when the case system is updated and knives drop more often. No, each case has a 0.26% probability of dropping a knife and a 99.74% probability of not dropping it.
Basically, it means that a knife can drop from your 15th case or 1500th with an equal chance. This is a matter of pure luck; it is impossible to increase the chances of dropping a knife from a case.
How to get a rare knife in CS2?
Some knives in CS2 are valued much higher than others. For example, a Butterfly Knife Gamma Doppler Emerald mentioned above can cost $20,000 or more. But Butterfly Knife Bright Water can be bought for only 800 bucks. So what is the chance of getting Doppler instead of Bright Water?
Let’s take Dreams & Nightmares Case for example. Cheap, available in weekly drops and contains both butterfly knives from our example. The chances of receiving any knife from those declared in the case is distributed evenly among all knives. Dreams & Nightmares Case contains 30 knives which means that in order to get a Butterfly Knife Gamma Doppler you need to open an average of 12,000 cases. A case opening of this scale will cost about $40,000!
Fortunately, you can get such a knife several times cheaper. Right now a Butterfly Knife Gamma Doppler Emerald is being sold on CS.MONEY for $15,000. Almost three times cheaper than the expected cost of opening a case! Still, CS.MONEY has not only luxury knives presented, but also skins of any price category. Starting from AK-47 Slate for $2, to rarest pairs of gloves worth $35,000. Just try it yourself!
